This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The stock market finally saw a little reversion to the mean on Friday, March 8, as the most-loved stock and industry was whacked. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 5.5%, its worst day since May 2023. This followed huge advances of 95% since January 3 and 130% since October 2023. Over six days (ending March 7), the shares rose more than 19%. At Friday's intraday high, NVDA hit $974 and then was slammed down to $865 by 1:35 pm.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The grip of monetary policy on the U.S. economy appears to be loosening, even though the Federal Open Market Committee is unlikely to cut the fed funds rate next month. The full effect of monetary tightening may have peaked in July according to our analysis of the Proxy Funds Rate, an analytical tool tracked and updated monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. At the end of January, the rate was 5.8%, compared with the official fed funds target of 5.25%-5.5%. The proxy rate peaked at 7.1% in July. The rate recognizes that central bankers use multiple tools (not just short-term interest rates) to meet their "dual mandate" of stable prices and maximum sustainable employment. The Fed uses forward guidance to communicate the direction of monetary policy and influence longer-term interest rates and broader financial conditions. The Fed also can expand its balance sheet through the large-scale purchase of Treasury and Mortgage Backed Securities, which is known as quantitative easing, or reduce its holdings, which is known as quantitative tightening. The Proxy Funds Rate uses the analysis of 12 financial variables, including Treasury rates, mortgage rates, and borrowing spreads, to translate the full range of policy actions into an analogous level of the funds rate, That can help assess whether policy is tighter or easier than the official funds rate suggests. In a November 2022 San Francisco Fed Economic Letter, the developers of the proxy rate noted the following: "As the FOMC increasingly used forward guidance and the balance sheet, the proxy rate has tended to lead the actual funds rate, reflecting the fact that financial markets are forward looking." The letter also noted that "combined policy tools have a more complex effect on the economy than the federal funds rate indicates." This suggests to us that Fed watchers should become even more diligent.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered thus far in 2023, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Here is the list of the Top Picks for 2024 from the Argus team of analysts. The team is deeply experienced, as each analyst has spent ,on average, 25 years on Wall Street and 15 years at Argus Research. As such, our analysts are extremely well-versed in our proprietary fundamental six-point system and the sectors they cover. They also have solid relationships with many of the management teams they cover. But they do not operate in a vacuum. An Investment Policy Committee (IPC) comprised of Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA; President John Eade; Chief Compliance Officer & Senior Financial Analyst Kevin Heal; and Director of Financial Institutions Research Steve Biggar provide macro outlooks for the economy, interest rates, earnings, and the stock market. The IPC reviews all proposed ratings changes. Our list below is organized by sector.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 3Q23. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists recently made progress with investments into companies such as FedEx and Union Pacific. Based on Vickers data, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.

Corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners (aka insiders) continue to distance themselves from the idea that stocks will move markedly higher in what remains of 2023, but also offer little indication that they believe a late-year correction is in the offing. That's not a huge surprise. Historical data from Vickers Stock Research tells us that insiders jump in ahead of the herd to take advantage of falling share prices, but also move to the sidelines quicker than most when stocks have headed meaningfully higher (as one can argue is the case right now). Indeed, it is when insiders don't behave in that manner that we generally start to take notice.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 83 basis points (bps) on Monday, the five-year yield popped 73 bps, and the two-year rose five bps. Yet to everyone's surprise, the stock market posted some very nice gains. There are times when investors start to ignore (or simply get used to) conditions that have been bothering them for months and start trading stocks on their merits. Still, it's only one day so far. And even with the recent increase, yields have not yet reached recovery highs. With third-quarter earnings season upon us, investors now have something else on which to focus.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning, led by declines in the Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors. Weekly employment data pointed to a still tight labor market. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 to 207,000 for the week ended September 30, but were slightly below the Reuters consensus forecast of 210,000. Job cuts also declined on a month-to-month basis in September. Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed by a greater-than-expected 9.9% in August as exports rose and imports fell. The Dow was down 0.5%, the S&P fell 0.8%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.0%. Crude oil fell slightly to $84 per barrel, while gold traded near $1833 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Institutions must file a Form 13F to report their holdings, and it is due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters. So these forms have now come in from 2Q23. We like to review the 13Fs of major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past year with high-profile investments into companies such as Fedex and Union Pacific. According to Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

For a third consecutive week, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research suggests that corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners recognize the strong stock-price gains that have been logged since mid-March -- but now may believe that a pause or some consolidation is in order. Are those same sentiment signals suggesting a significant correction is just ahead? Not yet.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 1Q23. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past year with high-profile investments into blue-chip companies such as FedEx Inc. and Union Pacific. Based on Vickers data, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

After OPEC's additional supply cuts in the beginning of April and subsequent WTI pop to the $80 area, crude oil has been as quiet as a mouse...until Wednesday. WTI shot up by $1.75/barrel or 2.2% to close at $83.34 -- the highest close since November 16. Oil has been range-bound since about the middle of November (almost five months) between $64 and $83. The decline in March below $70 was a false breakdown, which are usually bullish. Yesterday's gain was an initial step to an upside breakout, but we would like to see some follow-through action.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning amid new manufacturing data and hawkish comments from Fed officials that pointed to an extended rate hike campaign. The Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing PMI rose to 47.7 in February, up slightly from 47.4 in January but below the Reuters consensus forecast of 48.0. Readings below 50 indicate contraction in manufacturing. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $77 per barrel, while gold rose $12 to $1848 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning amid new manufacturing data and hawkish comments from Fed officials that pointed to an extended rate hike campaign. The Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing PMI rose to 47.7 in February, up slightly from 47.4 in January but below the Reuters consensus forecast of 48.0. Readings below 50 indicate contraction in manufacturing. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $77 per barrel, while gold rose $12 to $1848 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks fluctuated on Tuesday morning following more earnings reports from major companies. Verizon reported strong subscriber growth in 4Q, but offered disappointing 2023 guidance, while Johnson & Johnson posted mixed results and projected above-consensus earnings in 2023. GE posted better-than-expected 4Q earnings, but offered below-consensus guidance. The Dow was flat, and the S&P and the Nasdaq both fell 0.1%. Crude oil fell nearly 2% to $80 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1932 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 3Q22. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings (among others) in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

We'll quickly sum up 2022 to date. Stock markets down, bond yields across the curve up, and the U.S. dollar up. The trend is your friend...until it's not! An adaptation of Newton's first law of motion goes like this: A trend in motion is more likely to continue than to reverse. The corollary to this, and a key part of technical analysis, is that prices trend. A great amount of money can be made in the financial markets by riding long-term trends. But if it were easy, everyone would do it once a primary trend is confirmed.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Consumer Price Index report released yesterday showed broad-based inflation pressures in the U.S. during August, disappointing investors who were looking for a second month of declines. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an 8.3% increase in overall inflation year-over-year in August, compared to an 8.5% rate in July. The core rate (excluding the impact of food and energy prices), increased 6.3% in August, compared to 5.9% in July. The overall rate benefited primarily from falling energy prices (down 5% month-over-month) -- and we note that used car prices also declined (down -0.1%). But food and new vehicle prices remained on the rise (both up 0.8% month-over-month), as did costs of shelter (up 6.2% year-over-year) and transportation (up 11.3% year-over-year). We continue to think that the July 9.1% CPI rate will prove to be the peak reading for the index in 2022, as gas prices slide and the housing market cools. Even so, the Federal Reserve still has a lot of wood to chop in order to bring core inflation down to its target of 2.0%. We now look for a 75-basis-point rate hike by the central bank at its meeting next week, and further hikes at future Fed meetings as Chairman Powell and company try to bring inflation to lower levels.

Stocks rallied on Wednesday morning ahead of Fed speeches this week. Oil prices fell on recession risks and near-term declining demand in China due to the new COVID-related lockdown. Crude oil fell 3% to $83.61 per barrel, while gold rose to $1722 per ounce. Meanwhile, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 6.07%, as the market reacts to the Fed's policy. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 rose 0.9% and the Nasdaq was up 1.0%.

The major indices passed a key test on Thursday when they all held important support. For the S&P 500, a 61.8% retracement of the rally off the June lows targeted 3,900 -- and the day's low was 3,904. As well, a measured move based on the head-and-shoulders from the 60-minute chart came in at 3,910. Adding to the importance of this retrace, a 61.8% giveback for the Nasdaq was 11,564 (the day's low was 11,547), and the same retrace for the QQQs targets 293.84 (with Thursday's intraday low at 293). You can't make this stuff up as the algos are running the show.

There's been a lot of talk, mostly among technicians, about the belief that when the S&P 500 retraces 50% of its correction/bear market, the closing lows are in and investors can respond accordingly. Well, even if it was that simple, it doesn't always work. During major meltdowns, you might miss a massive rally if you waited for the "500" to see that kind or retracement. We also question any focus on a single percentage rather than a range. What if the "500" retraces 49%? Is that no good?

Stocks fell on Thursday morning, led by declines in the Energy and Consumer Discretionary sectors, following new inflation data. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 6.3% from the prior year in May after a similar increase in April. The core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 4.7% from the prior year, down slightly from 4.9% a month earlier. The Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil traded near $107 per barrel, while gold fell $6 to $1811 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 1Q22. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, according to the data from Vickers.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning as investors continued to assess the impact of Fed interest rate hikes along with developments in Ukraine, as Ukrainian forces refused to surrender in the port of Mariupol. The EU also considered a full ban on Russian energy imports, a move favored by Poland and the Baltic countries but thus far rejected by Germany. Boeing shares fell 4% after the crash of a China Eastern 737-800 jet in southern China. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil jumped $6 to $111 per barrel, while gold traded near $1935 per ounce.

The stock market moved lower last week as Omicron concerns caused volatility to spike to its highest levels since January 2021. Blue chips outperformed tech stocks, as investors went into a risk-off mode. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 60 points, or 0.17%. The S&P 500 was down 0.84%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.92%. For the week, the DJIA was down 319 points, or 0.91%, the S&P 500 was down 1.22%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.62%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 12.98%, the S&P 500 is up 20.83%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 17.05%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Despite 'catastrophic' (not our words) breadth, crazy (our word) sentiment readings, and bearish seasonals (everyone is saying that), the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) made all-time highs on August 23, while the S&P 500 made an intraday high. Last week's dip for the '500' and the QQQs did not even reach the 50-day average, while the Nasdaq fell below on an intraday basis on August 19. On August 23, the '500' rose 0.9%, the Nasdaq 1.6%, the QQQs 1.5%, the S&P 400 MidCap 0.9%, and the Russell 2000 1.9% (the big daily winner).

The 10-year Treasury yield, which has been flat to a bit lower since late March, broke lower last week. Yields fell as low as 1.27% on Thursday, the lowest since February 16. Back in March, yields ran up to the 1.76% level, but have very slowly been dribbling lower (to the surprise of many investors). With Tuesday's hot Consumer Price Index, which saw prices rise 0.9% versus an expected 0.5%, yields shot higher. For the day, the 10-year yield closed at 1.42%.

Stocks were largely flat at midday on Friday, with gains in the Financial and Technology sectors and losses in Healthcare and Real Estate. The University of Michigan said that its consumer sentiment index for the first half of June rose to 86.4, up from a final reading of 82.9 in May and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 84.0. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil traded near $71 per barrel, while gold fell $15 to $1882 per ounce.

The stock market was calm last week; volatility was at its lowest levels in over a year. Tech stocks outperformed blue chips for the second week in a row. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 297 points, or 0.89%. The S&P 500 was up 0.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.51%. For the week, the DJIA was up 647 points, or 1.95%, the S&P 500 was up 2.71%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 3.12%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 10.44%, the S&P 500 is up 9.92%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 7.85%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.